China: End of the Rush.

Every man and his dog are getting on to the Chinese GDP slowdown issue, and for those interested, here are a selection of articles from Project Syndicate and Stratfor that have appeared over the past few days,  but first lets start with the Macqaurie Bank GDP downgrade from Tuesday, 16 July, 2013:

  • China: Macquarie Bank Downgrades GDP Growth Sharply. - 2013 / 7.3%, 2014 / 6.9%, 2015 / 6.5% and 2016 / 6.0%. It should be remembered that less than 18 months ago a Chinese GDP growth rate of less that 8% was considered to be really bad news.

  • Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle (23 July, 2013) by George Friedman from Stratfor - 'The admission that a crisis exists is a critical moment, because this is when most others start to change their behavior in reaction to the crisis'.

  • China's Geopolitical Fallout (24 July, 2013) by Robert D. Kaplan, also writing in Stratfor - 'The biggest question in international affairs has nothing to do with Syria or Iran going nuclear. It has to do with the state of the Chinese economy...'

  • China’s End of Exuberance (23 July, 2013) by Michael Spence writing in Project Syndicate - 'With significant elements of the global economy and external demand facing headwinds, China’s acceptance (so far) of a growth slowdown, while its new growth engines kick in, is a good sign, in my view.'
  • China Grows Down (25 July, 2013) by Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng, also writing in Project Syndicate - 'For more than three decades, China’s GDP has grown by an average of more than 10% annually. But former Premier Wen Jiabao rightly described this impressive growth performance as “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable,” highlighting the many economic, social, and environmental costs and challenges that have accompanied it.'
  • And finally, again from Project SyndicateThe Politics of a Slowing China by Minxin Pei - 'The recent financial turmoil in China, with interbank loan rates spiking to double digits within days, provides further confirmation that the world’s second-largest economy is headed for a hard landing. '

Whichever way you look at it, China is entering into new and more turbulent waters, which will affect us all.

China: Macquarie Bank Downgrades GDP Growth Sharply.

They have downgraded 2013 GDP forecast for China to 7.3% (from 7.8%). 

But that is not all: they have downgraded their entire 'growth profile' (as they put it) for China as follows:

  • 2014 - no recovery, and expect growth to slow further to 6.9% 
  • 2015 - down to 6.5%
  • 2016 - 6%

Compared to 7.3%, 7% and 7% previously, and 'largely to ongoing structural (not just cyclical) issues.'



Hong Kong: to decline or not to decline.


Sixteen years after returning to mainland control, Hong Kong is experiencing an identity crisis. The enclave is anxious over its declining competitive edge and is growing antagonistic toward surging mainland cultural and economic influence into Hong Kong.

To agree or not to agree?
From Stratfor 
Orginal article title Hong Kong's Declining Economic Fortunes dated 21 June, 2013


While Hong Kong's uniqueness will inevitably decline, Beijing still needs Hong Kong to facilitate its own economic and political transformation, and simultaneously Hong Kong needs mainland markets, opportunities and human resources to re-emerge from the economic crisis and restore its competitiveness. The difference is China now wants multiple links to the outside world.